Millenarian tendancies

Earlier in the Covid catastrophe, way back in April, May, I kept a blog on the Covid thing, sharing the numbers and the headline news, watching keenly as the scale mushroomed exponentially – from thousands to tens of thousands, from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands, ever onwards and upwards. I stopped when it got close to a million. I feel there is an apposite quote, probably mis-attributed to a high-ranking Nazi, along the lines that killing one person is a serious crime, a 100 an unspeakable crime, and a million an inconvenient statistic.

The numbers on my old friend, world monitor, are coronavirus cases: 37,748,234; deaths: 1,081,443; recovered: 28,350,523. It’s fatiging to write those 7 and 8 digit numbers. I want to give rough numbers, 1.08 million is so much easier to write that one million, eighty-one thousand, four hundred and forty-three. What difference does 443 make, when it increased by 5,162 on October 10 alone. And do we really believe that the statistics collections globally are correct down to a single digit? Wouldn’t it be less inaccurate to recognize the approximate nature of these statistics by using numbers rounded up or down, rather than the faux exactitude of official statistics?

Yet we are talking about human lives, each one as precious in the abstract as our own to us are precious in reality, for without our life we are dead, void of existence and relevance. Each death, not just Covid – which opens a whole other can of moral relativity, for the question gets asked, is the focus on this new virus and the pandemic it has caused distracting from the focus on other life erasing illnesses, your garden variety cancers, heart dieseases and the like, each death… is a personal tragedy first and foremost. A life extinguished. A life extinguised due to a new virus, the first human instance of which they now think was sometime in 2019, earlier that its first reported detection in January, 2020.

Humans respond to new and established challenges very differently. An established challenge, such as grocery shopping, we pay scant critical attention to, relying on the accumulated knowledge and experience that we embed in the practice we call habits. Whether our shopping technique is as good as it could be, or whether the food we purchase is as cost effective or as healthy as it shoud be, are not things we consider on a habitual basis, we just go do our business like we did last week, motivated by the same desires, impulses, fears,  subject to the same temporal constraint like proximity and parking.

A new challenge on the other hand engages our attention very differently for something new is something scary. Novelty stimulates us. It frees us from the chains of stupor, the habits that freeing out mind of anxiety anesthetise our daily lives and starve our soul of stimulus. When we discover a new lump on our breast or a new rash on our skin, we move into high panic mode. It consumes us. We become hyper-active, researching and catastrophising, examining the guilty part of our body and scheduling medical appointments. Every mini-step fraught with anxiety and self-doubt. It is exhausting. Still, this phase, despite its (fever) pitch, does not last. Panic consultations in time give way to diagnosis and the slow grind of treatment. The practice of our illness itself becomes a habit, one so frequently disagreeably mundane that final death is sometimes more deliverance than despair.

Our response to Covid was in the days of Spring usabashedly that of something new. We responded with panic to the threat and an abundance of caution to the risks. The chief benefit of this initial period was solidarity as the world reacted in a common human way to a novel, threatening impact. The chief downside was panic, an over excited state, typified by a loss of self-control and a capacitor-like discharge of mental and emotional energy, resulting in the inevitable come-down, a psychological crash which leads to waves of recrimination and self-loathing lapping at our shores.

The initial wave of covid darkness: images on our TV of container trucks tucked innocuously in the corner of New York hospital parking lots…makeshift morques the presenter informed us, in a voice rolling with self-importanance from the breaking of real new news, and carrying also an undertone, a high octane e mix of incredulity laced with contempt, for a wee virus, an ancient foe, had laid mighty America low. That mix of contempt and incredulity had become ingrained even by that early stage, originating  from earlier images from Italy where footage of patients on ventilators in crowded wards and interviews with harried doctors speaking with compassion and resignation, had at one point seemed destined to be the high-water mark of the pandemic’s impact. Newspaper articles on Italy’s unique problems proliferated for a few weeks, its economic failings, its lack of rule keeping, the hugging and kissing, it’s sheer Italian-ness.  Little did we know that there would be other countries to pity, the UK and Brazil, with their comedy political leaders, and others to envy, the `Germans and the Japanese, those old reliable exemplars of well functioning society, before the virus struck here and our fixations once again found their natural home, ourselves.  

Now 9 months into the pandemic the argument flops backward and flips forwards between those who retain the panic and those already half-bored wanting to go back shopping.

Public health is a tough business to be in. On paper, it is in the business of saving lives. but in reality, it is in the business of putting a price of life. On paper, professional sport is in the business of nurturing sport to the highest level, but in reality, it is monetising a sporting experience in the most efficient way possible. It is this pragmatic reality, grubby and normal, at the core of public health, one understood and both supported and resented by its users and taxpaying enablers, that induces a low-level distrust among those very same users and enablers in its mission and messages, a distrust that is induced by self-awareness of their own contradictory impulses of ‘yes for me, but less for thee’. In short, we want the best for ourselves but don’t want to pay for the best for others.

Public health talks passionately about what we should do as individuals and stays silent about its targets for acceptable fatalities. Each life is unique and precious, and 100 deaths is a number.

Public health organisations expended a lof of resources in panic mode fighting the new threat. Now that we are nine months in, facing winter, with nothing resolved, no vaccine, no wonder treatment – so the debate goes,  should we continue with the panic mode, all hands on deck to save lives, massive expenditures or energy, or, or should we allow it to slip from the headlines, from page one in the newspapers, just let it and the five thousand fatalities a day slip gently below the surface of our consciousness, into a room down the long corridor where our habits are found, like hobbits, living a life in the shire of small pleasures, unconcerned about the world outside, even as the clouds form and darkness grows over the mountains of Mordor.

Oct 27, 2020

Global 43,800,644 Deaths: 1,164,784          

Ireland 58,067 Deaths 1,885

As of last week, we are once again in lockdown, in a nether zone somewhere between level 4 and 5. We are not alone; Ireland is nestled, as is its wont, in the middle of European countries in the severity of Covid-19 infection rate resurgence. It is only October and the dreaded second wave is here.

Shops are closed, 5km limit to travel reimposed, restaurants shut…the methods are primitive, invasive and desperate. We are medieval walled cities, grubby with fear and pestilence, represented by suspicious and anxious guards at our gates, drawn inwards by the awfulness that surrounds us, a malign state of impoverished terror that  we contribute to by our regressively negative thoughts, if it’s this dangerous here, imagine how bad it is out there, we think, as we scurry in the shadows like rats, avoiding humans like the plague.

The preferred statistic of comparison at this point in the pandemic is number of cases per 100,000 people, and the national number in Ireland is above 300. Cavan has the highest country incident rate at over 900. Andalusia, in Spain, home to Sevilla, a flight destination for us next month should we choose to break the chains of lockdown and avail of the 2 for 1 Ryanair tickets I purchased in a fit of optimism while sprawled on a single bed in Tokyo back in September, has an incident rate of over 1,000, which is pretty high; however, within Spain, it is one of the lowest. Madrid, at the top, has an incident rate of over 4,000 per 100,000. That is 4% of residents have Covid now. With those kinds of numbers herd immunity won’t be long coming, you might think, but in research results reported in newspapers this morning, it was found that post infection immunity to Covid does not last long. Not good information for those of us ‘following the science’ and hoping for some kind of rational exit ramp.

There are demonstrations in Italy against the new restrictions. All over the shop, that section of the population, found in almost every country, that fears the New World Order, whatever that is, has picked up freedom’s cudgel to protest the imposition of mask wearing, a new symbol it seems of oppression to place, alongside vaccinations, 5G and micro-chipping, on the altar of evil  dedicated to the 21st century Beezlebub himself, globalism.

Funnily enough, the most prominent and ineluctable purveyors of the new world order, one in which the globe is spanned (and spammed) by the same tropes and herded by the same information, are the gi-normous IT companies, your Facebooks, Googles and Apples, your Microsofts, Netflixs and AliBabas. Yet our anti-vaxxer friends have no beef with this unholy crew of mind-share stealing, revenue sucking, behaviour shaping and agenda setting set of digital overlords. What gives?

Guess they like Facebook. Helps them organise their rallies and share their memes. The powerlessness they feel in their slavery to big tech, a powerlessness they cannot do anything about, due to their dependence on said same, causes psychological trauma as it infantilises and inculcates dependency. This trauma generates anger, which unable to focus on the root cause of their dependency, big tech, due to their own  complicity in the development of that dependency, they project onto other areas of modern existence that have some of the same attributes – global in reach, technology driven, and with a controlling capability. Hence vaccination programs and 5G and the like.

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the long covid

Earlier in the Covid catastrophe, way back in April, May, I kept a blog on the Covid thing, sharing the numbers and the headline news, watching keenly as the scale mushroomed exponentially – from thousands to tens of thousands, from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands, ever onwards and upwards. I stopped when it got close to a million. I feel there is an apposite quote, probably mis-attributed to a high-ranking Nazi, along the lines that killing one person is a serious crime, a 100 an unspeakable crime, and a million an inconvenient statistic.

The numbers on my old friend, world monitor, are coronavirus cases: 37,748,234; deaths: 1,081,443; recovered: 28,350,523. It’s fatiging to write those 7 and 8 digit numbers. I want to give rough numbers, 1.08 million is so much easier to write that one million, eighty-one thousand, four hundred and forty-three. What difference does 443 make, when it increased by 5,162 on October 10 alone. And do we really believe that the statistics collections globally are correct down to a single digit? Wouldn’t it be less inaccurate to recognize the approximate nature of these statistics by using numbers rounded up or down, rather than the faux exactitude of official statistics?

Yet we are talking about human lives, each one as precious in the abstract as our own to us are precious in reality, for without our life we are dead, void of existence and relevance. Each death, not just Covid – which opens a whole other can of moral relativity, for the question gets asked, is the focus on this new virus and the pandemic it has caused distracting from the focus on other life erasing illnesses, your garden variety cancers, heart dieseases and the like, each death… is a personal tragedy first and foremost. A life extinguished. A life extinguised due to a new virus, the first human instance of which they now think was sometime in 2019, earlier that its first reported detection in January, 2020.

Humans respond to new and established challenges very differently. An established challenge, such as grocery shopping, we pay scant critical attention to, relying on the accumulated knowledge and experience that we embed in the practice we call habits. Whether our shopping technique is as good as it could be, or whether the food we purchase is as cost effective or as healthy as it shoud be, are not things we consider on a habitual basis, we just go do our business like we did last week, motivated by the same desires, impulses, fears,  subject to the same temporal constraint like proximity and parking.

A new challenge on the other hand engages our attention very differently for something new is something scary. Novelty stimulates us. It frees us from the chains of stupor, the habits that freeing out mind of anxiety anesthetise our daily lives and starve our soul of stimulus. When we discover a new lump on our breast or a new rash on our skin, we move into high panic mode. It consumes us. We become hyper-active, researching and catastrophising, examining the guilty part of our body and scheduling medical appointments. Every mini-step fraught with anxiety and self-doubt. It is exhausting. Still, this phase, despite its (fever) pitch, does not last. Panic consultations in time give way to diagnosis and the slow grind of treatment. The practice of our illness itself becomes a habit, one so frequently disagreeably mundane that final death is sometimes more deliverance than despair.

Our response to Covid was in the days of Spring usabashedly that of something new. We responded with panic to the threat and an abundance of caution to the risks. The chief benefit of this initial period was solidarity as the world reacted in a common human way to a novel, threatening impact. The chief downside was panic, an over excited state, typified by a loss of self-control and a capacitor-like discharge of mental and emotional energy, resulting in the inevitable come-down, a psychological crash which leads to waves of recrimination and self-loathing lapping at our shores.

The initial wave of covid darkness: images on our TV of container trucks tucked innocuously in the corner of New York hospital parking lots…makeshift morques the presenter informed us, in a voice rolling with self-importanance from the breaking of real new news, and carrying also an undertone, a high octane e mix of incredulity laced with contempt, for a wee virus, an ancient foe, had laid mighty America low. That mix of contempt and incredulity had become ingrained even by that early stage, originating  from earlier images from Italy where footage of patients on ventilators in crowded wards and interviews with harried doctors speaking with compassion and resignation, had at one point seemed destined to be the high-water mark of the pandemic’s impact. Newspaper articles on Italy’s unique problems proliferated for a few weeks, its economic failings, its lack of rule keeping, the hugging and kissing, it’s sheer Italian-ness.  Little did we know that there would be other countries to pity, the UK and Brazil, with their comedy political leaders, and others to envy, the `Germans and the Japanese, those old reliable exemplars of well functioning society, before the virus struck here and our fixations once again found their natural home, ourselves.  

Now 9 months into the pandemic the argument flops backward and flips forwards between those who retain the panic and those already half-bored wanting to go back shopping.

Public health is a tough business to be in. On paper, it is in the business of saving lives. but in reality, it is in the business of putting a price of life. On paper, professional sport is in the business of nurturing sport to the highest level, but in reality, it is monetising a sporting experience in the most efficient way possible. It is this pragmatic reality, grubby and normal, at the core of public health, one understood and both supported and resented by its users and taxpaying enablers, that induces a low-level distrust among those very same users and enablers in its mission and messages, a distrust that is induced by self-awareness of their own contradictory impulses of ‘yes for me, but less for thee’. In short, we want the best for ourselves but don’t want to pay for the best for others.

Public health talks passionately about what we should do as individuals and stays silent about its targets for acceptable fatalities. Each life is unique and precious and 100 deaths is a number.

Public health organisations expended a lof of resources in panic mode fighting the new threat. Now that we are nine months in, facing winter, with nothing resolved, no vaccine, no wonder treatment – so the debate goes,  should we continue with the panic mode, all hands on deck to save lives, massive expenditures or energy, or, or should we allow it to slip from the headlines, from page one in the newspapers, just let it and the five thousand fatalities a day slip gently below the surface of our consciousness, into a room down the long corridor where our habits are found, like hobbits, living a life in the shire of small pleasures, unconcerned about the world outside, even as the clouds form and darkness grows over the mountains of Mordor.

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When a pandemic become endemic…

Cases: 13,372,011; Deaths: 587,782

Ireland Cases: 25,683; Deaths: 1,748

Here in Ireland the first wave of Covid infections has been subdued. The talk now is of reopening, economic costs and attendant risks. Just yesterday, the planned reopening of pubs set for July 20th was pushed back to August 10th due to an uptick in the number of infections.

It feels like we have entered a new phase. I want to call it the ‘long war’ but hesitate as this new phase in time might be seen as the ‘opening part 2’. The long middle phase may be further down the tracks. This might go on for a very long time yet. What we think is a significant milestone on the hike may turn out to be a forgettable foothill.

The social parameters that govern the new normal are a contentious subject as the draconian but simple and consistent rules of lockdown are replaced with the ‘but-ocracy’ of restoring daily activities but with restrictions.

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Body Numbers…

For the last 7 months I’ve been on a diet. The will to diet was powered by self-loathing, while the act of dieting was made flesh by the purchase of a weighing scales. My smart weighing scales were a key part of my diet plan. I would weigh myself every day to avoid the self-delusion that had become a customary part of my make-up.

Avoidance is a fellow traveller with self-delusion, and I had avoided any dealings with the concept of BMI, body mass index, for my 53 plus years. My smart scales, once hooked up to the inevitable app, provided measures for my weight and BMI, plus other indicators such as visceral fat and BMR which I largely ignore.

I started with a BMI of 36.3 derived from my 1.82m height and 120.3 kg weight. Four days ago, I weighed 95.7kg with a BMI of 28.8. That’s 211pounds. My next micro target is to get below 210 pounds. My next micro target is also to get below 15 stones. 97.5kg is just under 15stones and 1 pound. Getting to 95kg will mean that I have lost 4 stone.

At almost every juncture on this weight loss journey I’ve had some near target to aim for in kilos, pounds, stones or BMI. Not too long ago getting my BMI below the obesity level, 30, was my goal

COVID 19 has been haunting the population for 3 months now, and it’s been known for most of that time that obesity makes the outcomes from COVID worse. Obesity is described as a comorbidity in COVID discussions, a medical term to describe a second disease that afflicts the patient alongside the primary disease. Obesity makes the outcomes from COVID infections much worse.

Having studiously in an offhand way avoided knowledge of my BMI for decades, when confronted with it, and my obesity, I was affronted. Being of a part of the troublesome obesity cohort was shameful. I wish it wasn’t, I wish I was more mature and in tune with who I was, but it was and I wasn’t. My app indicates that a BMI of below 22 is normal. That will never happen.

My aim is to put enough kilos between me and obese that I can falter for a short period and still be under that accusing number. A BMI of 27, roughly 89 kilos, is my target. That would put my under 200 pounds. Very cool! And just at 14 stone…also pretty cool.

Food is an addiction as I clearly use it for emotional needs beyond nourishment. Accordingly, I will have to weigh myself daily for the rest of my life, or until I stop caring about this shit.

Meanwhile, I will continue to fight my daily battles with pounds, kilos and stones. The last couple of days my weight edged up to 97kgs. In response, I will clamp down for the next couple of days, to try to get under 95kg.

Alongside the eating less, weighing myself everyday, and being a little like Jennifer Anniston by not eating after 8pm, I have been engaged in the physical exercises of walking and jogging. This too is a thicket of targets…minutes per mile walking and running; minutes per km walking and running, distance travelled in 20 minutes, time taken to walk the forest path segment…no surprise, I have an app for that.

Today I ran a PB, a personal best. I have never used that expression before. As my jogging times improve, I start to take on the affectations of the mildly serious runner.

Today, a Sunday, there were many people out on the river path. I happened upon a group of runners as they were about to set off. I joined at the tail of their group, and driven on by their pace, I ran 3.9km in 20 minutes. At that pace, it took 8 min 15 sec to run a mile. Last week I was struggling to run a mile in 9 mins 30 secs.

On the way back, I power walked, trying to hit a sub 14min/mile pace. I overtook two fit looking lads who were enjoying a stroll. ‘You’re making a show of us’, one of them said. ‘A coffee is what I need’, I replied.

Much closer to the walk’s end I ran into a woman I meet frequently walking her dog, Patch. ‘The heat’s fierce’, she said. ‘Very humid’, she added. ‘It’s very close’, I concurred and power walked on.

Within 50 metres, a man met me with a smiling face and an open faced eagerness to engage the likes you get from Mormon missionaries and that sort. ‘Jeez, there’s some crowd out today’, he said. I had no answer in the moment and had no intention of stopping. So I went on and too late half-shouted back, ‘Tis like Central park’. Not my best work.

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…stopped counting, stopped listening…

Global Cases: 7,325,839; Deaths: 413,761

Locally, the number of new cases has slowed to a trickle – yesterday there was 9 – and people have moved on from obsessing about the disease to obsessing about ‘opening up’ as businesses and society return to operation.

This Monday, June 8th, the rowing club opened its doors for the first time since March. Eager beavers, like bargain shoppers overnighting on a pavement for a sale, were there at 8am to savour the right to row again. For now, access is limited to single sculls, as you’d expect with social distancing, but the impact to the village after long weeks of social hibernation of seeing these sleek boats once again on the river is something.

In the US, there are protests upon the theme of Black Lives Matter. These protests have overshadowed the story of the pandemic. The Guardian Newspaper yesterday reported that more than a dozen states had registered new highs for infections over a rolling seven day period. Trump no longer talks about the virus, apparently believing that with silence will come absolution. The vacuum of leadership at the apex of the administrative triangular system, the federal government, has forced the states of the union to depend on their own resources.

This has resulted almost inevitably in the lockdown easing equivalent of a bidding war, where states compete with each other to remove restrictions more quickly. They are egged on by constituents weary from the lockdown and fearful that the jobs they temporarily stepped away from will cease to be.

In this rolling mess of misinformation, information fatigue, and fast changing circumstance, people in states that have not yet had the full brunt of the wave see badly hit states coming out of lockdown and wonder why they should persist with precautions for an illness that has not yet arrived.

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TraderTrailers…

Predictions for May 29th, 2020

Nasdaq last 10 days: 7 gains. Prediction tomorrow: fall

Friday 29th market close…was wrong, so I was, Nasdaq rose 1.47% on the back of Trump waffling on China and unloading on the economically irrelevant WHO. Bought $1000 Hertz (HTZ) at 1.07, finished at 1.00, a loss of roughly 6%, 70 bucks or so. The pain of that loss offset by $3.5 grand upswing on other investments.

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Do you know anyone who’s got the covid?

Global Cases: 5,281,704; Deaths: 338,726

The numbers tumble on ever upwards. A month ago, it was 2.6m cases. Now it’s twice that.

The Irish as is their wont call it ‘the covid’. They anoint it with the definite article as they do other mainstays of daily life that deserve a proper noun, such as the weather or the the hurling or the football or the soccer or the horse racing or the main man himself, the pint.

There is a flatness to daily life, as the lockdown continues to drain the rhythms of daily life into the gutter, leaving behind a catatonic state of drabness I call catonia. Things are opening up but it will be a while before things will change for me.

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and on and on….

Global cases: 4,716,983; Deaths; 312,385

Since I wrote last the cases have near doubled and the deaths have kept pace. The numbers have become numbers, inevitably, as humans do as we do. Our attention span has evolved for daily challenges, not monthly ones, and as the lockdown days prolong into weeks, we cede our attention to thoughts of liberation from the lifestyle cancer of lockdown.

We are accustomed in our time to the lifestyle diseases of cancer and heart ailments. A Victorian virus leaves us grasping for breath, and demands of us a different calculation, one where the very air we breathe, and not the amount of saturated fat we consume, is the harbinger of health.

Jesus! Time to get and stay stoned. Really!

This pandemic has become as bad as the worst prognosis indicated. It kills it spreads it’s resistant to treatment, and the promise of a vaccine lies beyond the horizon of our here and now. Humanity is well and truly not fucked but on the back foot for sure.

Time for me, 2 month into this craperoo, not sick from the virus, but sick of the virus, time to say adieu mother fockers…cos I is going to bed! Over a trout.

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The Swallows are back….

Global Cases: 2,646,247; Deaths: 184,352;

The sun’s been shining the last couple of days and along the river the number of joggers, cyclists, dog walkers, and strollers has increased. “the swallows are back too, you see them flying around’, a younger man than me said as part of a recounting of our pastoral blessings.

It is indeed a glorious spot, as the Irish often say, when the sun shines. We are part of this war but it does not feel like the front line; even though I learned this week of a local Covid fatality – a sister of one of if not the first infected local.

In Ireland on April 22, there were 49 deaths and 631 new cases, numbers similar to what we’ve been seeing for the last 2/3 weeks. The next pivot point will be May 5th when the ongoing set of lockdown restrictions will be reviewed.

The discussions today are about how to ease the lockdown and the probabilities of there being a second/third/fourth wave of infections. Covid-19 has not disappointed. It is truly fucking up the way the world went about its business…and some of that is a good thing. Even the gung-ho outriders of populism are cagey about taking on the virus by pushing for an aggressive relaxation of lockdown restrictions.

Here’s a snapshot of the paper headlines today. The focus has shifted from the deaths and the infection numbers to the economic impacts – the huge numbers joining the unemployment register, the calamitous drop in air travel, the requests for business bail outs…all the fall out you’d expect from slamming the brakes on the global economy and sending almost everybody home to sit on their collective rear ends.

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Is it…too covidy?

Global Cases: 2,069,279; Deaths: 133,362 April 15

That is what my partner said to me as she sweated over a post she was composing for instagram. Too covidy, y’know acting too solicitous online, trawling for public hugs as you flaunt your compassion; or too covidy as in unnecessarily bringing Covid into everything. One of those two…

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